he adoption
of clean technologies, one of the key drivers of a green economy is
often perceived to present tradeoffs between conflicting goals. On one
hand, it provides much-needed climate action and resource efficiency,
but on the other, it is thought to bring higher costs, slower economic
growth and consequently lower standards of living than a Business As
Usual (BAU) scenario.
This article aims to demonstrate that contrary to the
above concerns, a business case exists for transition to clean
technologies. It explores the benefits in terms of financial
implications, economic growth and social equity vis-ŕ-vis BAU.
Financial Implications
Contrary to popular belief, clean technologies can
bring substantial financial benefits. According to Climate Policy
Initiative (Nelson, et al., 2014), the transition to a low-carbon
electricity system would bring the global community an estimated USD 1.8
trillion in financial savings during 2015-35. That is roughly the size
of India’s GDP in 2013. Similar-sized savings are possible in
transitioning to low-carbon transport.
The question is how are savings of such magnitude
possible when renewables involve higher capital expenditure and
financing cost than non-renewables? The use of renewables allows us to
save the high operating costs of extracting and transporting coal and
gas. These savings far outweigh the high capital costs of renewables.
Therefore, investment in clean technologies can be economically viable.
Large-scale solar energy has achieved grid parity in India and rapid
industry growth is already underway with forecasts of a USD 6-7 billion
capital-equipment market and USD 4 billion in annual revenues for
grid-connected solar generators over the next decade (Kaushal, et al.,
2013). A similar story is expected of other clean technologies as
resource efficiency will attempt to marry rising resource demand with
limited availability and the costs of climate inaction will compel
policy to incentivise clean choices.
Economic Growth
As in the case of any major technology shift, the
transition to clean technologies will create jobs in some sectors and
displace people in other sectors. A UC Berkeley research group modelled
a scenario where 20% of U.S. electricity demand was met by renewables by
2020 and found that this would create a net 78,000 to 102,000 additional
jobs – an increase of 91 to 119% over a scenario in which coal or gas
met the entire electricity demand (Beinhocker & Oppenheim, n.d.). While
not many such modelling exercises have been conducted for India, the
prospects appear positive.
Further, failure to adopt green technologies is not
an option if sustained economic growth is a priority. According to the
Stern Review, climate change could cost India and South-East Asia about
9-13% of their GDP by 2100. Up to an additional 145-220 million people
could be living on less than USD 2 a day and there could be an
additional 165,000 to 250,000 child deaths per year in South Asia
(Stern, 2007).
Social Equity
Resource-efficient technologies reduce the
requirement of natural resources per unit of output. The resulting
conservation of resources benefits the poor, majority of who depend on
these resources for their livelihood.
The poor bear the greatest brunt of rising energy
prices and the energy insecurity that follows. Therefore, investment in
energy efficiency will benefit the poor (Beinhocker & Oppenheim, n.d.).
Innovations in technology can solve some of the poor people’s most
pressing problems. Solar energy innovations can electrify tens of
thousands of villages in India without electricity. The development
benefits of electrification are tremendous and needless to mention.
Caveats
While it is true that clean technologies can generate
significant financial benefits, these benefits are realised only over a
couple of decades. In the short run, they require substantial
investment, which needs to be incentivised using appropriate policy
tools.
While the transition may generate jobs, the poor may
not benefit from such opportunities if there are deficiencies in skills,
health, education etc. Public finance must be directed towards enhancing
the poor people’s capability to take advantage of opportunities.
All the benefits described above are of course
benefits ‘that could be’. The realisation of benefits is dependent upon
effective policymaking that considers the interests of all stakeholders,
especially the poor.
q
·
Beinhocker, E. & Oppenheim, J., n.d. Economic opportunities in a
low-carbon world. [Online] Available at:
http://unfccc.int/press/news_room/newsletter/guest_column/items/4608.php
[Accessed 17 August 2015].
·
Kaushal, V., Unni, A., Venkataramani, H. & Pant, M., 2013. Solar Power
and India's Energy Future, s.l.: A.T. Kearney.
·
Nelson, D. et al., 2014. Moving to a Low-Carbon Economy: The Financial
Impact of the Low-Carbon Transition, s.l.: Climate Policy Initative.
·
Stern, N., 2007. Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change.
s.l.:Cambridge University Press.