Theory of Change: Its Origin and Relevance
in Development Sector

Theory of Change (ToC) is an approach to understand the process and the product in any programme, and it has varied uses at different levels. It can be developed for interventions ranging from an event to a policy as well.

It is difficult to trace the origin of ToC but it was in the early 1990s that this approach gained traction in the developed world. The Aspen Institute particularly focused on the utility of ToC for impact evaluation in community programmes. The Roundtable at the Aspen Institute led to the publication of a book called ‘New Approaches to Evaluating Comprehensive Community Initiatives’. Carol Weiss focused on how complex programmes become very difficult to evaluate in terms of their impact, and the stakeholders remain unclear about the outcomes that are to be achieved. She stated that it is important to understand where you are to understand where you want to be.

ToC is meant to create a roadmap for the programme by outlining the impact, and then tracing the process to the short- and long-term outcomes. It offers a non-linear map which explains how different components in the programme are connected. The diagram has multiple pathways to reach the intermediate and long-term outcomes, which then culminate into the overall impact of the programme. The diagram often is backed by assumptions and a hypothesis as well. While creating a ToC for any intervention, it is important to keep the following things in mind:

• It is to be undertaken at the inception stage, that is, very early in the programme

• It involves a range of stakeholders to ensure that different perspectives are taken into account

• It can be facilitated through workshops and brainstorming exercises by the team

In the ‘Women’s Empowerment through Livelihoods, Entrepreneurship, and Access through Digitization’ (WE-LEAD), a Theory of Change was devised during the inception period to understand the project objective, impact, outcomes and context as well. The accompanying figure shows a glimpse of the ToC.

ToC provides a visual representation of where you are, where you want to be and how to reach from A to B. Additionally, it is meant to ensure clarity and create a shared understanding of the project outcomes, process and impact. The approach has also helped clients and other stakeholders understand the project outcomes and impact better, enabling better impact evaluation for interventions.

This approach also highlights how intervention design and evaluation are completely intertwined, and how ToC can be utilised to measure and evaluate outcomes during the designing stage itself. It is an effective medium not just to measure but also to highlight if a programme is going on the right path, and the shortfalls that may come later on in achieving the outcomes. As ToC is becoming an inevitable feature of development programmes, it has become pertinent to ensure that they are an integral part of our programmes; providing guidance and a map to reach the outcomes.■
 

Sushant Agrawal
skagrawal@devalt.org
Mahak Sharma
 msharma1@devalt.org