A Super cyclonic storm with a wind speed of more than 260 kilometers hit the Orissa coast in the early hours of October 29, 1999 causing unprecedented devastation to life, property, agriculture, industry, infrastructure and communication network in ten coastal districts.

"My entire family has drowned. My land is gone. My cattle are dead. I have lost everything", voiced a villager from Jhatibari village, hit by the Orissa Super Cyclone.

"I wasn’t poor, but I am now as the storm has turned me into a pauper overnight", expressed another cyclone victim.

These are a few excerpts from the media coverage depicting the human dimensions of the Orissa Cyclone, which demonstrates that Orissa alone cannot tackle such a calamity. The Cyclone reflects a global crisis, having intricate linkages with global warming, and must be dealt with accordingly.

Human Dimensions of the Cyclone
The human dimensions of the Orissa Super Cyclone were widespread. The super cyclone and its associated floods caused large-scale devastation to human life. It took a toll of 10,092 lives, 3 lakh (300,000) cattle, agricultural crops, trees, roads, communication systems, water supply system, power supply system, flood embankment, houses, schools and hospitals. Severe damage was caused to irrigation infrastructure, and saline inundation caused large tracts of land to become unfit for agriculture. The cyclone also totally disrupted all types of communications and electricity in the cyclone affected areas of Orissa for many days.

Tropical storms like cyclones can have a major impact on society. Along the over 7000 km Indian coastline, their frequency, intensity, and severity may increase. Scientific studies have shown that tropical storms like the cyclones develop only over seas that are warmer than 260C. The area of seas having temperatures over this critical value will increase as the globe warms, bringing more coastal areas under the severity and threat of such tropical storms.

In an average year about 70 to 80 tropical cyclones are recorded worldwide, causing a damage of about US $1.5 billion, with a death toll of over 20,000 lives. These figures are overshadowed, however, by the disastrous consequences of individual events in the coastal areas of developing countries like those of the Indian sub-continent (e.g. India, Bangladesh). The impact of climate change on tropical storms is still unclear, but many scientific workers have concluded that climate change would bring an increased intensity of tropical storms like the Indian cyclones.

Wendlaned (1997)1  has provided empirical evidence for the relationship of tropical hurricanes to ocean mean surface temperatures. From the monthly data for 1971-81, the frequency of hurricanes is closely related to the size of the ocean area with temperatures over 26.80C. Similarly, Emanuel (1987)2  showed that the tropical cyclones are "particularly sensitive to sea surface temperature", and expected a 40-50% increase in the destructive potential of hurricanes with the doubling of Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Houghton (1994)3  estimated an increase in both the frequency and severity of tropical and other storms (Climate Change 1995: Working Group III Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change).

Vulnerability of Eastern Coast
In the context of the Orissa Super Cyclone, it is worthwhile to discuss briefly the vulnerability of the eastern coast of India to tropical cyclones. The eastern coast of India consists of the coasts of West Bengal, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

Records of 218 cyclones over the period 1681–1996 that originated in the Bay of Bengal and made landfall in different parts of the eastern coast of India have been analysed by the India Meteorological Department. It was found that the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and Orissa are most vulnerable to tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, with respectively 32.09% and 26.98% of tropical cyclones making landfall annually.

Storm Surges
Storm Surges associated with tropical cyclones cause serious damage and destruction to life (human, cattle, bio-diversity), property and agriculture. The range of heights of storm surges is depicted in the Table 1.

Severity of the Storm
The storm was the second most severe in the recorded history of Indian cyclones, and the most intense tropical cyclone in the history of Orissa since 1885. The state was battered for more than two days by fierce winds, intense rain, huge storm surges, and catastrophic floods. The initial disturbance that eventually led to this development of a super cyclone was first spotted over the Gulf of Thailand in October 24, 1999. It intensified while moving westward. It crossed the Orissa coast close to Paradip on October 29, 2000.

The satellite picture at the time of landfall of the Orissa super cyclone revealed a very warm eye temperature of 2640K surrounded by a very cold band with cloud temperatures lower than 1930K. The estimated central pressure fell by 56 hPa and this is indicative of the destructive power of the cyclone. The lowest 

 estimated central pressure for this super cyclone was 912 hPa. This is almost the lowest central pressure encountered so far in any tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal.

Unprecedented Rains and Floods

The cyclone affected areas experienced unprecedented rains for 36 hours from the time of the landfall causing devastating floods in and around the area of landfall. The causes of these floods are:

§   Storm Surge

§    Open and Flat Coastal Belts

§ Human Destruction of Mangroves

§ Cyclone remained practically stationary

§   Flash Floods in Some Rivers

1. Storm Surge
Some reports put the storm surge at about 9m. Other assessments indicated a storm surge of about 5 to 6 m.

2. Open and Flat Coastal Belts
Open and flat coastal belts of the Super Cyclone affected areas made it possible for the surge to penetrate up to 35 km of land, wash away everything on its way and inundate vast areas.

3. Human Destruction of Mangroves
Human destruction of mangroves was quoted as one of the reasons for the unprecedented flood havoc in the area. The mangrove forests act as natural barrier to storm surge and cyclone wind.4 

4. Cyclone remained practically stationary
Due to some peculiar meteorological conditions, the Orissa Super Cyclone did not move inland (as is normal) after the landfall on the 29 October, but remained practically stationary over the area till 31 October. Therefore, the strong impact on the landfall region with intense rains and strong cyclone winds continued till October 31.

5. Flash Floods
The situation in some of the districts like Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur worsened as a result of flash floods in the Baitorani, the Brahmani, the Subernarekha and several other rivers. In the Bhadrak district alone, the Kana and Salandi rivers washed away more than 50 villages.

Damage to Livelihoods
The fishery sector contributes 3.5% to the state GDP which amounts to Rs.700 crore (US$ 1 million ~ Rs. 4.3 crore). 67,102 fisherman families in 13 districts were affected by the super cyclone. 29,818 fishing boats and 59,174 nets have been damaged.

Statistics reveal that 22,030 weavers have been affected by the cyclone, and 14,404 looms and accessories have been damaged. As per the official assessment, nearly two million houses have been damaged or completely destroyed.

Damage to Ecology
In a nutshell:

§    90,00,000 trees along the entire coastline have been damaged

§    1,00,000 trees in the protected or reserved forests have been destroyed

§    1,500 km - 2000 km of roadside plantations, including 480 km of casuarina fields have almost vanished from 
     the landscape

§    37 percent of Orissa’s geographical area comprised forests in 1981. It is now down to 19 percent (India 
    Today, December 13, 1999)

The super cyclones not only ravaged the forests in that area but also drastically affected the livelihoods of the local people. The rural population need fuel wood for their day to day energy use, and non-timber forest produce like roots, tuber, leaves, fruits, medicinal plants to earn their livelihoods. To regain the trees lost in the cyclone, the state needs to plant 23 crore saplings (1 crore = 107) to cover the losses. 18000 ha of coastal shelter belt plantation, 7000 ha of plantations, 18000 ha of mangrove forests were completely ravaged by the super cyclone. An estimated 90 million trees were damaged or uprooted.

Conclusion
It is not clear to exactly what extent the effects of Climate Change, global warming, and sea level rise contribute to the development of such tropical cyclones, their intensity and damage potential, though evidence points in the direction of strong linkages. A considerable in-depth research would be needed to establish clear linkages between climate change and the intensity of the tropical cyclones. International joint efforts from WMO, UNEP, IPCC, UNFCCC are required for short term as well as long term research to understand the linkages between such extreme events and Climate Change. There is a need to recommend to the cyclone prone states to take up preventive measures that reduce the suffering caused to the people and to the economy. Such extreme events compel us to analyse the lessons learnt and stress the necessity to incorporate those lessons in the future. q