Water in the 21st Century
Ismail Serageldin

The United Nations recently surveyed a group of leading thinkers from many disciplines on the most important issues facing humankind in the next Century. The scarcity of freshwater ranked as the world’s second most pressing concern (after population growth in poor areas). Indeed, the world is approaching a water crisis: water is becoming more scarce, dirtier and more difficult to access. Less water is available for maintaining ecosystems. And, conflict over shared water resources is growing.

The World Water Council has convened a World Commission on Water for the 21st Century to look squarely at the crisis and produce a "Vision" for a more desirable water future and, in collaboration with the Global Water Partnership, a Framework for Action to achieve that vision. The Commission is Chaired by Ismail Serageldin, Vice President of the World Bank. Its members include individuals who are renowned for exemplary achievement in their respective fields (see letter head and below). The Commission and the Vision are cosponsored by FAO, UNDP, UNESCO UNEP, UNICEF, WHO, WMO and the World Bank. His Royal Highness, Prince Willem- Alexander of the Netherlands is an honorary member of the Commission, as are three Nobel laureates known for their concerns and work in areas related to water and the environment.

The work of the Commission (henceforth called the World Water Vision exercise, or "Vision exercise" for short), conducted over a period of 18 months, is meant to move us from where we are today to where we need to be to ensure the sustainable use of water for future generations. The objective is to develop a widely shared vision on the actions required for tackling water issues globally and regionally. The exercise is characterized by the participation of individuals and groups from across the geographic, organizational and disciplinary spectrum, innovative "out-of-the-box" thinking, and extensive consultation, with an emphasis on communication with groups outside the water sector. The Vision will be truly global. However, special attention will be given to the needs of developing countries and the poor, and special efforts will be made to involve women and youth.

The Vision exercise involves a process of study, consultation and promotion which will:

· develop knowledge on what is happening in the water sector regionally and globally, and on trends and development outside the world of water which may affect future water use;

· based on this knowledge, produce a consensus on a "Vision" for the year 2025 (with an even longer-term context) that is shared by water sector specialists and decision makers in the government, the private sector and civil society;

· raise awareness of water issues among the general population and decision-makers in order to foster the political will and leadership necessary to achieve the Vision; and

· utilize the knowledge and support generated to contribute to a Framework for Action for national governments, donor agencies and other investors in the water sector.

From Scenario-Building to Action
If humankind were to continue along past and present paths, the situation would be disastrous. But that should not be allowed to happen. A more desirable scenario in which all future needs would be met can be imagined. Certainly there are forecasts of changes in technology and in institutions that could make this possible. The changes that will be necessary will meet resistance and take time. And there are associated risks. These must be examined and understood. Out of such an analysis will emerge a picture of the range of possibilities for the management of water resources to meet economic, social and environmental needs.

The process that is being followed by the Vision exercise is almost as important as the conclusions that derive from it. For it involves not only the water sector and environmental professions, but also policy and decision makers, and the whole of civil society. The exercise will not simply project what will happen if past trends continue, or what developments are possible in the water sector. Rather, it will engage specialists in biotechnology, information and communications technology, energy, and institutions on developments they foresee during the next 30 years that could have an impact in the demand and supply of water. Probably more importantly, it will examine changes in society brought on by population growth and distribution, cultural change and the evolution of institutions, and factor into the Vision a wide range of threats and opportunities. Bearing in mind that water must be managed locally (not just because this is physically true, but because socio-economic and cultural forces that determine how water is managed also vary regionally), the Vision exercise will conduct numerous and extensive regional consultations with a broad spectrum of society.

In addition to examining the present state and future possibilities for water management, the World Commission on Water, working with the Global Water Partnership on a "Framework for Action," will make recommendations on how to transform the Vision into policy and investments in the water sector. Over the next decade alone, some US$600 billion will be invested in irrigation, water supply and sanitation, hydropower and the maintenance of water ecosystems. The Framework for Action will go a long way to ensuring that expenditure of these sums is guided by good science and sound policy.

The interim results of the ongoing work of the Vision exercise will be discussed at meetings of the Commission in March, 1999, in connection with the World Water Day meeting in Cairo, and in August, 1999, in connection with the Stockholm Water Symposium. The final results, including the Framework for Action, will be presented at the 2nd World Water Forum and Ministerial Conference in March, 2000, in The Hague, Netherlands.

But the impact of the Commission’s work will not end there. The Vision exercise will reach out to communicate through a wide range of networks of people to raise their awareness of their dependence on water and the increasingly periled nature of this most precious resource. These networks include professional associations, associations of non-governmental organizations, and social clubs like Rotary International and the Junior Chambers of Commerce. Through them, water will be promoted high on the agenda of policy makers. Vision staff will also work closely with the media to transmit messages about the Vision process and its conclusions.

Work Plan
Three sets of activities are being undertaken:

1) panels;

2) sectoral and regional consultations; and

3) network consultations and special outreach programs.

Thematic panels are being convened around the issues of Energy, Biotechnology, Information and Institutions (economic and social change). These panels will address water from perspectives not usually associated with the resource, but whose impact on the availability and use of freshwater resources could be substantial. A fifth panel, the Scenario Development panel is developing the data base, models and scenarios that the Vision exercise uses to support its consultations and recommendations.

Sectoral consultations are being organized on Water for People (through the Water Supply and Sanitation Collaborative Council and others), Water for Food (involving ICID. IMWI, FAG, TFPRI, ILRI and others) and Water for Nature (through IUCN and others). River basin management and hydropower will also be examined through collaboration with the World Commission on Dams.

Regional consultations will be undertaken in 10-15 regions of the world, in close collaboration with the regional Technical Advisory Committees of the Global Water Partnership and the International Hydrological Program of UNESCO. These consultations will engage local perspectives and recognize the difference between regions in the final recommendations of the Commission.

Network consultations will take place through many planned water meetings as well as through feedback from the membership of network organizations. Special outreach efforts will be made towards women and youth, two essential groups for any forward looking global perspective and action on water.

Finally, growing populations continue to demand more water. Thus, the need to anticipate competing claims over shared water resources and find mechanisms with which to resolve them is urgent. The task needs to be addressed by persons of international standing, trust and political experience in dealing with inter-governmental issues. Such persons, including the Hen. Mikhail Gorbachev and the Hen. Ingvar Carlsson, will develop a "think-piece" on international waters which they will present at the Stockholm Water Symposium in August, 1999 and which will influence the final Vision document and Framework for Action.

Conclusion

Coming at the beginning of the new millennium, the work of the World Commission on Water provides a unique opportunity to build commitment and guide policy and action in the use of our most precious resource for generations to come. We are all stakeholders when it comes to water. The World Water Council and the World Commission on Water for the 21st Century invite everyone to contribute to the development of the World Water Vision.

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