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The present global problem of ozone depletion
and appearance of the ozone hole over Antarctica is mainly
due to emission of CFCs and halos by the industrialised
countries. In fact the developed world, whose population
is roughly 25% of the earth’s population, is responsible for
creating more than 90% of the present global ozone problem.
This is mainly due to disproportionate and excessive
consumption of these chemicals and other environmental
assets.
But considering the urgent need to save
environmental assets that provide irreplaceable life support
functions like the ozone layer, the developing countries
have come forward to strengthen the international measures
for protecting the ozone layer.
The recent move at the Copenhagen Conference
(November 1992) on the Montreal Protocol to compress the
phasing out schedule of the controlled substances (CFCs and
halons) and to include one of the most important
transitional substance - HCFC-22, in the list of controlled
substance, has added a new dimension to the already
problematic issue of implementation of the Montreal
Protocol, particularly by India and other developing
countries, who are already producing HCFC-22.
Development Alternatives has taken up a
research study on the implications of the Montreal
Protocol. This report brings out a brief summary of some of
the important issues for India and other developing
countries in the implementation of the Protocol.
Critical Issues for Developing Countries
Most of the developing countries have certain
common factors with regard to CFCs like:
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Very low to negligible emission,
production and use of CFCs. |
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The contribution of India and other
developing countries to global environmental problems
like the depletion of the ozone layer, sea level rise,
etc is insignificant in comparison to the contribution
by industrialised nations. |
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Some of the small inland developing
countries may face serious sea level rise and
increased UV-B due to climate change and depletion of
the ozone layer, which may even threaten their very
existence. |
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Various economic and technical measures
that would be required to implement the Montreal
Protocol by the developing countries would cause very
serious economic, socio-economic and other resource
constraints. This would slow down their pace of
economic development. |
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Most of the developing countries have a
large population and a high population growth with
very low per capita income - a large percentage of
their population have per capita incomes below the
poverty line. |
Economic Implications
The real economic cost, particularly to India and other
developing countries where the impacts of climate change and
depletion
of ozone layer will be most severely felt, will consist of
incremental costs in implementing the Protocol and the
environmental costs.
Incremental Costs to India
Some studies have been reported indicating
the incremental costs of compliance to the Montreal Protocol
to India. Incremental cost is the difference between the
costs in various sectors (producer + user + consumer) in a
protocol constrained scenario (no phase out).
Their findings are analysed in the following
table:
|
Economic Cost to India in Implementing
the Montreal Protocol ( A Summary)
(Cost in
million US Dollars in Net Present Values.
Figures in bracket indicate value in Rs.
Crore) |
|
Early Strategy |
|
Late Strategy |
|
Source |
Producer |
User |
Consumer |
Total |
Producer |
Users |
Consumer |
Total |
|
World Bank Paper
(King & Munasinghe, 1991) |
192
(576) |
68
(204) |
60
(180) |
307
(920) |
82
(246) |
50
(150) |
350
(1050) |
482
(1149) |
|
Ministry of Env. & Forests
(Report submitted by British
Consultant: Touche Ross) |
120
(360) |
40
(120) |
147
(440) |
407
(920) |
43
(130) |
37
(110) |
623
(1870) |
703
(2110)
|
|
Task Force Report, Govt of India
(Ministry of Industry) |
Break-up not
available |
1400
(3500) |
Break-up not
available |
2450
(6000) |
But the real economic costs to India taking
into account the abatement costs of environmental impacts of
ozone depletion will be manifold.
India and many other developing countries
have already joined the Protocol despite the fact that they
contribute insignificantly to the emissions of CFCs (&
halons) to the atmosphere. What is important is that
theoretically, even if all the CFCs are phased out globally
with immediate effect, the stratospheric chlorine/bromine
loading will continue to rise for at least the next few
decades. The impact of ozone depletion on the bio-sphere
and economic costs to India and other developing countries
will be enormous. The present ‘Multilateral Fund’ for
meeting only incremental costs should be geared up to
compensate developing countries for environmental impact
abatement costs which may be at least 10-15 times the
country’s incremental cost. If India has to incur Rs 6,000
crores as incremental costs towards implementation of the
Montreal Protocol, the real economic cost of India may be a
staggering high of Rs 90,000 crores (about 30 billion US
Dollars) and more, to deal with the situation.
Suggested Alternative Strategies
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All developing countries should be come
signatories to the Montreal Protocol (India is already
a signatory to the Protocol). |
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Being parties to the Protocol, they
should jointly press for further amendments to the
June 1990 amended Protocol and safeguards the
interests of the developing countries. Such
amendments may include. |
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Total phasing out schedule of CFCs for
the developing countries should be extended to 2030
A.D. instead of 2010 (This is necessary to minimise
the economic impact on the consumers). Such as
amendment would considerably bring down the economic
costs to these countries in implementing the Protocol. |
|
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After 2010, the CFC - producing Sector
should cater only for recharging and reconditioning of
refrigerators and air conditioners, and other
essential uses in health care etc and not for
aerosols, clearing, foam blowing and new refrigerators
/ air conditioners. |
|
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The provision in the Protocol for halon
and CFC banks and recycling should be totally
withdrawn and banned, since such provisions may be
misutilised by some of the industrialised countries to
make a huge stock pile of these controlled CFCs and
halons.
There should be a provision for
inspection of such stock piles under supervision of a
team whose members should be largely from the
signatory developing countries. |
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The scope/terms and conditions of the
Multilateral Fund created under the Protocol should be
enlarged to cover environmental costs to developing
countries due to impacts of ozone depletion, global
warming and increased tropospheric ozone, on health
(human and animal), agricultural (food security),
plants and forests, aquatic life, materials and air
quality, in addition to the ‘incremental costs’
already provided for. |
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All developing countries should be
encouraged to take up country specific R&D activities
required for the implementation of the Protocol and
such activities should be fully funded from the
Protocol Fund and other national and international
funding mechanisms |
Some of the possible areas where R & D
activities are considered urgent are:
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R & D for least-cost and energy
-efficient use of CFC alternatives adopted/development
in India. |
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R & D for use of non-CFC alternatives
in the user sector in India |
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Development of an economic model for
predicating cost of compliance of the Protocol:
(I) economic costs to the nation,
(ii) quantification of environmental costs due to
ozone depletion. |
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Impact Study on Health, Agricultural
Yield, Air Quality, Aquatic Eco-System and Material
Damage. |
Need for a New Country Fund
In India the concerned industries (producers
/users of CFC alternatives) should consider establishing in
fund for research in priority areas by NGOs and other
institutions for successful implementation of the Montreal
Protocol, in addition to existing Government funding.
The author works on
Global Environmental issues,
Environment Systems Branch
Development Alternatives
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